Over the past year, Microsoft has produced a stunning series of “future vision” videos that express where new hardware technologies will take computing.
<a href="http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-GB&playlist=videoByUuids:uuids:a517b260-bb6b-48b9-87ac-8e2743a28ec5&showPlaylist=true&from=shared" target="_new" title="Future Vision Montage">Video: Future Vision Montage</a>At first glance, the underlying argument looks really sexy. The 20,000 view of the technology mix looks something like this:
Users will want unified communication between and more contextual interaction with devices.
This will be enabled by:
- Complex sensor networks
- Voice recognition
- Cross-device interactions
- Simple, idiot-proof security
- Cloud computing
- Constant geolocation of users
An Inconvenient TruthUnfortunately, the amazing slickness factor of these videos (they are produced by Digital Kitchen), covers up an inconvenient truth: Microsoft believes we will be using tomorrow's high speed wireless networks, powerful batteries, sensing and display technologies to do what we do with computers now:
- Authoring, editing and organizing digital content- Assembling customized solutions- Obtaining and understanding information- Communicating- Meeting- Working from anywhere- Scheduling
The idea that businesses will spend on technology that enables workers to do the same basic tasks we do today is an insane argument.
The economics of hardware require a new platform every ~36 months, so we can rely on planned obsolescence on that timeframe. If all of these devices need to work together seamlessly, they will need to be replaced on that cycle or become outdated all at once.
Web 3.0 and Context Aware Computing need to create a MASSIVE increase in worker/material efficiency to jsutify the invesment. More of the same is just not a compelling argument to build the neccesary IT army to manage it. The cost and effort to constantly track and replace sensors, displays, routers and computers will be incredible.
The Scenario Makes 3 Wrong Assumptions1. Tech manufacturers will play nice with each other2. High-density/high-band width cloud computing will work.3. Federated authentication and human tracking are good ideas.Industrial Collaboration The Microsoft Future Vision will require a closed hardware/software platform to work seamlessly. The need for this goes beyond the performance bump of integrated technologies to the basic physics of the situation. IT managers simply won’t be able to cable all of this stuff. It will have to be wireless.
1-10k “Web 3.0” wireless devices in an office work group would create an RF density beyond anything you have experienced and beyond anything the FCC has ever considered approving. The sheer chaos of multiple vendors will scare off anyone who has any IT manager who has been burned by RF issues.
The resulting IP/System standards wars will turn off the few IT execs who aren’t scared of getting even more locked in to MS.In any case, I’m unsure that systems lock-in is ever in anybody’s interest besides the vendor.
Limitations of Cloud ComputingAt current growth curves, power available to datacenters in the US will run into a hard ceiling in 2012-13. The energy usage required for constant cloud processing and delivery of realtime HD video for 300,000,000 consumers will be through the roof.
The amount of last mile wiring will require massive labor and egregious expense.
The materials used in optical switching limit the maximum speed of networks
Early adopters of digital video are choking the system today. 300,000,000 people downloading HD video at the same time would and will kill it..
The materials used in CPUs also have physical limitations.Multicore computing is an essentially inefficient technology solution. Building 3D circuits with Silicon Germanium may help solve this problem, but this is an unproven technology and the tooling will be through the roof.
Federated Authentication and Human TrackingFederated Authentication: The idea that one organization manages your security across many networks is a disaster waiting to happen.When a hacker gets access to one ID, they can break all of the others. BAD. BAD. BAD ... but maybe good for Microsoft, because everyone has a hotmail account.
Human Tracking: Privacy Is ImportantNoone wants their boss, employees and colleagues to know exactly where they are all the time, something 50% of men have cheated on their wives. Let me restate that. 50% of executives have or are cheating on their wives. They REALLY, REALLY, REALLY don't want to be trackable.